FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/2/2020

Nat 2733E N6BRV

I’ve been graphing, projecting and simulation updates for a group of Ham friends (in and out of state) every other day since 3/14/2020. 

Thought might be of interest to you. 

Raw data from CDC and several other sources.


73’ Nat S. N6BRV


From: Nat Suwarnasarn [mailto:njsarn9@...]
Sent: Friday, April 03, 2020 12:16 AM
To: undisclosed
Subject: US CoViD-19 Update 4/2/2020


Quick Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT  ALL MUST WEAR MASK WHEN VENTURING OUTSIDE

Good news, California infection cases (1st derivative) appear to be flattening out but will have to see with 2-3 more days of data if that trend holds.

Bad news, Michigan will over take California for infection case numbers followed by Louisiana.  Michigan (417 deaths) has already over taken California (246 deaths).


USA Latest data 4/2/2020 Infected 244,681 Deaths 6,070 (2.5%) and Recovered 10,403 (4.25%) Surpassed death rate

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/20/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 10,000 on April 7, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indication does not support improvement.  US Infection cases deviated from Poison Simulated distribution.


State of California data 4/2/2020 Infected 10,838, Deaths 234 (2.2%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 20,000 by 4/8/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 20, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need additional data from following 3-5 days.


San Diego County data lags 1 day behind.

San Diego County data 4/1/2020 Infected 966, Deaths 16 (1.7%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1,000 by 4/3/2020. 

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.


73’ Nat S. N6BRV


All of US:



For San Diego County only

Join main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io to automatically receive all group messages.