Re: FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

Eric Richardson

Thank you, Nat. Excellent work. Eric KM6MPE 

On Sun, Apr 5, 2020, 8:45 PM Nat Suwarnasarn <njsarn9@...> wrote:

Please see below.


From: Nat Suwarnasarn [mailto:njsarn9@...]
Sent: Sunday, April 05, 2020 8:42 PM
Subject: RE: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020


Quick Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT  ALL WEAR MASK WHEN VENTURING OUTSIDE

Good news, California infection cases (1st derivative) appear to be flattening out but will have to see with 2-3 more days of data if that trend holds.


USA Latest data 4/5/2020 Infected 336673 Deaths 9616 (2.9%) and Recovered 17,977 (5.34%) Surpassed death rate

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/20/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 10,000 on April 6, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indication some improvement.  US Infection cases fit (good old) Gaussian distribution better still on the rise.and not at the peak yet.  It is obvious that the distribution is convoluted by the state by state individual distribution peaks.P = P1+…+Pn


State of California data 4/5/2020 Infected 15,037, Deaths 347 (2.3%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 20,000 by 4/8/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 19, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need additional data from following 3-5 days. 

Gaussian Distribution is a better fit.  Is CA at the peak?  Will see next coming week’s data.


San Diego County data lags 2 days behind.  Dat from SD county not updated on weekends

San Diego County data 4/3/2020 Infected 1,209, Deaths 18 (1.5%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 2,000 by 4/9/2020. 

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.


73’ Nat S. N6BRV


All of US:




For San Diego County only County does not update on Weekends

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