Re: FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/9/2020


Sarah Peterson
 

Nat, these graphs are very informative. Thank you for creating these and sending them out.

On Sat, Apr 11, 2020 at 12:08 AM Nat Suwarnasarn <njsarn9@...> wrote:

Updated the Plots yesterday (from live sources but data is captured everyday at 6:00 pm).  See multi peaking explained below (happens when we relax our restriction and let down our guards).

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

From: Nat Suwarnasarn []
Sent: Thursday, April 09, 2020 9:01 PM
To:
Subject: RE: US CoViD-19 Update 4/9/2020

 

Quick Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT 

N.B. Let me know if you want to be removed from the list, otherwise will report projections in 3-5 days interval.

·         California infection cases (1st derivative) appear to be jumping about but will have to see with if that trend holds.  Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Louisiana may surpass California in number of infected cases in 3-5 days.

·         Although CA is showing good signs of potential curve flattening, all need to be very vigilant and stay inside to prevent Multi-peaking (Multi-peaking – As one curve tries to flatten out, pauses for a few days then another new and underlying curve forces it to continue to rise and not flattening out.).  Curve fitting is done by minimizing Chi Squared on curve parameters when possible.

·         The number of Corona Virus Disease19 deaths is currently LESS than CDC’s (2018-19) projected seasonal Influenza deaths (up to 59,000) out of infected 45 million (worst) cases.  However, CoViD19 deaths on infected is 3.56% versus seasonal Flu is about 0.13% worst case deaths.  Thus the virulent of CoViD19 is about 27 times that of seasonal Flu. ALL WEAR MASK WHEN VENTURING OUTSIDE  Link à https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

 

USA Latest data 4/9/2020 Infected 468,566 Deaths 16,691 (3.56%) rate increased from previous and Recovered 25,928 (5.53%)

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/21/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 50,000 on April 26, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicate some improvement but then jumps back up indicating Multi-peak situation  It is obvious that the distribution is convoluted by the state by state individual distribution peaks.P = P1+…+Pn.  Therefore, US Infection cases is changed to multi-peak Lorentzian distribution fit and is still on the rise and not observed to peak yet. Projection by Health Data Organization Link à http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

State of California data 4/9/2020 Infected 19,971, Deaths 559 (2.8%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 20,000 by 4/8/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 19, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need additional data for few more days. 

Gaussian Distribution is still a better fit for CAThe fit is done to determine the Peak date after which should be flat.

 

San Diego County data à https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/community_epidemiology/dc/2019-nCoV/status.html

San Diego County data 4/8/2020 Infected 1,628, Deaths 40 (2.5%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 2,000 by 4/9/2020 but now appears to be leveling off.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

All of US:

 

CALIFORNIA ONLY:

 

For San Diego County only County does not update on Weekends

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