Date   

Upcoming Event: Disaster Communications Team Meeting - Sat, 05/02/2020 9:00am-12:00pm #cal-reminder

main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io Calendar <main@...>
 

Reminder: Disaster Communications Team Meeting

When: Saturday, 2 May 2020, 9:00am to 12:00pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where: Chapter HQ, 3950 Calle Fortunada, San Diego CA 92123 (Thoms Bros 1249E3)

View Event

Description: Talk-in on the PARC 130 machine (147.130 (+) 107.2); if repeater is down please monitor the PARC 730 repeater (146.730 (-) 107.2).

If you get lost or can't get in the building call Bob KG6RGI, cell 760 533 1957 or Jer AK6QJ, cell 442 264 3055.

Meeting is in the CDOC. Food is not allowed and drinks must be in non-spillable containers.

If you're not sure where to go please wait outside in back by the warehouse roll-up door and someone will come to guide you in.


Re: DMR unofficial Net

Nat Suwarnasarn
 

They haven’t fix the delayed voice yet.  But the Key up Call Sign and ID is working fine.  They also have the Profile picture displayed on Key up as well.

 

From: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io [mailto:main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io] On Behalf Of Steve
Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2020 8:36 PM
To: main@arc2-sdicc.groups.io
Subject: Re: [ARC2-SDICC] DMR unofficial Net

 

I don't think they fixed the 40 min delay but I haven't checked it lately.  Don't hear anything right now.

 

Steve

 

On Tue, Apr 28, 2020 at 8:30 PM Nat Suwarnasarn <njsarn9@...> wrote:

You can monitor RED PRI at à https://hose.brandmeister.network/group/310980

 

 

From: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io [mailto:main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io]
Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2020 2:00 PM
To: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io
Subject: [ARC2-SDICC] Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/28/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

 

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net

When: Tuesday, 28 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8

View Event

Description: Net Control - K6REW
North Check-Ins - KG6RGI
South Check-Ins - AI6ZE

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).


 

--


Re: DMR unofficial Net

Martin Offenhauer
 

Cool !
Martin Offenhauer
N6QIR



On Tue, Apr 28, 2020 at 8:30 PM Nat Suwarnasarn <njsarn9@...> wrote:

You can monitor RED PRI at à https://hose.brandmeister.network/group/310980

 

 

From: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io [mailto:main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io]
Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2020 2:00 PM
To: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io
Subject: [ARC2-SDICC] Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/28/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

 

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net

When: Tuesday, 28 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8

View Event

Description: Net Control - K6REW
North Check-Ins - KG6RGI
South Check-Ins - AI6ZE

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).


Re: DMR unofficial Net

Steve
 

I don't think they fixed the 40 min delay but I haven't checked it lately.  Don't hear anything right now.

Steve

On Tue, Apr 28, 2020 at 8:30 PM Nat Suwarnasarn <njsarn9@...> wrote:

You can monitor RED PRI at à https://hose.brandmeister.network/group/310980

 

 

From: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io [mailto:main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io]
Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2020 2:00 PM
To: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io
Subject: [ARC2-SDICC] Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/28/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

 

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net

When: Tuesday, 28 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8

View Event

Description: Net Control - K6REW
North Check-Ins - KG6RGI
South Check-Ins - AI6ZE

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).




Re: DMR unofficial Net

Nat Suwarnasarn
 

You can monitor RED PRI at à https://hose.brandmeister.network/group/310980

 

 

From: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io [mailto:main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io]
Sent: Tuesday, April 28, 2020 2:00 PM
To: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io
Subject: [ARC2-SDICC] Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/28/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

 

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net

When: Tuesday, 28 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8

View Event

Description: Net Control - K6REW
North Check-Ins - KG6RGI
South Check-Ins - AI6ZE

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).


Re: Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/28/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

Sara
 

Hi all, 
Late check in... tried unsuccessfully to reach the repeater from my back porch in Encinitas. I hope all are well, happy and healthy! 
73, 
Sara 
KG6TUK

On Tue, Apr 28, 2020 at 2:00 PM main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io Calendar <main@arc2-sdicc.groups.io> wrote:

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net

When: Tuesday, 28 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8

View Event

Description: Net Control - K6REW
North Check-Ins - KG6RGI
South Check-Ins - AI6ZE

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).


Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/28/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io Calendar <main@...>
 

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net

When: Tuesday, 28 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8

View Event

Description: Net Control - K6REW
North Check-Ins - KG6RGI
South Check-Ins - AI6ZE

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).


Re: Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/28/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

Rosalinda
 

Please grant me an email check in
Rosalinda KI6WVA


-----Original Message-----
From: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io Calendar <main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io>
To: main <main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io>
Sent: Mon, Apr 27, 2020 8:00 pm
Subject: [ARC2-SDICC] Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/28/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net
When: Tuesday, 28 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles
Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8
Description: Net Control - K6REW
North Check-Ins - KG6RGI
South Check-Ins - AI6ZE

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).


Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/28/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io Calendar <main@...>
 

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net

When: Tuesday, 28 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8

View Event

Description: Net Control - K6REW
North Check-Ins - KG6RGI
South Check-Ins - AI6ZE

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).


Question - VE

Nat Suwarnasarn
 

To Patrick K6SML,  Have a question for you.  Please use email on PAPA.

 

BTW, you should write an article on how to hide contact details from public…LOL

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV


Re: Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/21/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

Rosalinda
 

Please grant me an email check in I haven't been able to check in via radio the last 2 weeks, not sure it am hitting repeater
Rosalinda KI6WVA


On Apr 21, 2020, at 2:00 PM, main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io Calendar <main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io> wrote:

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net

When: Tuesday, 21 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8

View Event

Description: Net Control - KG6RGI
North Check-Ins - W6SJK
South Check-Ins - KJ6HOV

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).


Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/21/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io Calendar <main@...>
 

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net

When: Tuesday, 21 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8

View Event

Description: Net Control - KG6RGI
North Check-Ins - W6SJK
South Check-Ins - KJ6HOV

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).


Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/21/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io Calendar <main@...>
 

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net

When: Tuesday, 21 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8

View Event

Description: Net Control - KG6RGI
North Check-Ins - W6SJK
South Check-Ins - KJ6HOV

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).


FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/17/2020

Nat Suwarnasarn
 

FYI, sent to a group of Hams.

Maybe the reason some lesser populated states had surpassed California à https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dbU3p78eAg

 

From: Nat Suwarnasarn []
Sent: Friday, April 17, 2020 6:16 PM
To: undisclosed
Subject: RE: US CoViD-19 Update 4/17/2020

 

Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT 4/17/2020 (Previous updated 4/9/2020)  Next expected projection report in 3-5 days.

·         California infection cases (1st derivative) jumping about appears to be leveling off.  Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Michigan all surpassed California in number of infected cases and death rate.

 

USA Latest data 4/17/2020 Infected 709,735 Deaths 37,153 (5.23%) rate notably increased and Recovered 60,510 (8.53%)

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/23/2020 (shifting to later date - good sign).and number of deaths Breaking 50,000 on April 24, 2020 (shifting closer – bad sign, death rate climbing!)

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicate some improvement but then jumps back up indicating Multi-peak situation  US Infection cases is indicate o multi-peak Lorentzian distribution fit and is still on the rise and not observed to peak yet. Projection by Health Data Organization Link à http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

State of California data 4/17/2020 Infected 29,175, Deaths 1041 (3.6%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 30,000 by 4/22/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 17, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need 3 more days of data.

 The fit is done to project when the Peak date should be after which should be flat.

 

San Diego County data à https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/community_epidemiology/dc/2019-nCoV/status.html

San Diego County data 4/15/2020 Infected 2.087, Deaths 63 (3.0%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 2,000 by 4/17/2020 but now appears to be leveling off.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

All of US:

 

CALIFORNIA ONLY:

 

For San Diego County only County does not update on Weekends


Re: Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/14/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

Fred Curtis, KI6GRO
 

Bob and Jer,

Can you give me an early check-in tonight for the nets?  Won't be able to make them this evening.

73!

Fred
KI6GRO


Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/14/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io Calendar <main@...>
 

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net

When: Tuesday, 14 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8

View Event

Description: Net Control - WA6DNT
North Check-Ins - AK6QJ
South Check-Ins - W6SJK

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).


Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/14/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io Calendar <main@...>
 

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net

When: Tuesday, 14 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8

View Event

Description: Net Control - WA6DNT
North Check-Ins - AK6QJ
South Check-Ins - W6SJK

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).


Re: FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/9/2020

Sarah Peterson
 

Nat, these graphs are very informative. Thank you for creating these and sending them out.

On Sat, Apr 11, 2020 at 12:08 AM Nat Suwarnasarn <njsarn9@...> wrote:

Updated the Plots yesterday (from live sources but data is captured everyday at 6:00 pm).  See multi peaking explained below (happens when we relax our restriction and let down our guards).

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

From: Nat Suwarnasarn []
Sent: Thursday, April 09, 2020 9:01 PM
To:
Subject: RE: US CoViD-19 Update 4/9/2020

 

Quick Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT 

N.B. Let me know if you want to be removed from the list, otherwise will report projections in 3-5 days interval.

·         California infection cases (1st derivative) appear to be jumping about but will have to see with if that trend holds.  Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Louisiana may surpass California in number of infected cases in 3-5 days.

·         Although CA is showing good signs of potential curve flattening, all need to be very vigilant and stay inside to prevent Multi-peaking (Multi-peaking – As one curve tries to flatten out, pauses for a few days then another new and underlying curve forces it to continue to rise and not flattening out.).  Curve fitting is done by minimizing Chi Squared on curve parameters when possible.

·         The number of Corona Virus Disease19 deaths is currently LESS than CDC’s (2018-19) projected seasonal Influenza deaths (up to 59,000) out of infected 45 million (worst) cases.  However, CoViD19 deaths on infected is 3.56% versus seasonal Flu is about 0.13% worst case deaths.  Thus the virulent of CoViD19 is about 27 times that of seasonal Flu. ALL WEAR MASK WHEN VENTURING OUTSIDE  Link à https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

 

USA Latest data 4/9/2020 Infected 468,566 Deaths 16,691 (3.56%) rate increased from previous and Recovered 25,928 (5.53%)

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/21/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 50,000 on April 26, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicate some improvement but then jumps back up indicating Multi-peak situation  It is obvious that the distribution is convoluted by the state by state individual distribution peaks.P = P1+…+Pn.  Therefore, US Infection cases is changed to multi-peak Lorentzian distribution fit and is still on the rise and not observed to peak yet. Projection by Health Data Organization Link à http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

State of California data 4/9/2020 Infected 19,971, Deaths 559 (2.8%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 20,000 by 4/8/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 19, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need additional data for few more days. 

Gaussian Distribution is still a better fit for CAThe fit is done to determine the Peak date after which should be flat.

 

San Diego County data à https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/community_epidemiology/dc/2019-nCoV/status.html

San Diego County data 4/8/2020 Infected 1,628, Deaths 40 (2.5%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 2,000 by 4/9/2020 but now appears to be leveling off.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

All of US:

 

CALIFORNIA ONLY:

 

For San Diego County only County does not update on Weekends


FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/9/2020

Nat Suwarnasarn
 

Updated the Plots yesterday (from live sources but data is captured everyday at 6:00 pm).  See multi peaking explained below (happens when we relax our restriction and let down our guards).

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

From: Nat Suwarnasarn []
Sent: Thursday, April 09, 2020 9:01 PM
To:
Subject: RE: US CoViD-19 Update 4/9/2020

 

Quick Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT 

N.B. Let me know if you want to be removed from the list, otherwise will report projections in 3-5 days interval.

·         California infection cases (1st derivative) appear to be jumping about but will have to see with if that trend holds.  Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Louisiana may surpass California in number of infected cases in 3-5 days.

·         Although CA is showing good signs of potential curve flattening, all need to be very vigilant and stay inside to prevent Multi-peaking (Multi-peaking – As one curve tries to flatten out, pauses for a few days then another new and underlying curve forces it to continue to rise and not flattening out.).  Curve fitting is done by minimizing Chi Squared on curve parameters when possible.

·         The number of Corona Virus Disease19 deaths is currently LESS than CDC’s (2018-19) projected seasonal Influenza deaths (up to 59,000) out of infected 45 million (worst) cases.  However, CoViD19 deaths on infected is 3.56% versus seasonal Flu is about 0.13% worst case deaths.  Thus the virulent of CoViD19 is about 27 times that of seasonal Flu. ALL WEAR MASK WHEN VENTURING OUTSIDE  Link à https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

 

USA Latest data 4/9/2020 Infected 468,566 Deaths 16,691 (3.56%) rate increased from previous and Recovered 25,928 (5.53%)

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/21/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 50,000 on April 26, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicate some improvement but then jumps back up indicating Multi-peak situation  It is obvious that the distribution is convoluted by the state by state individual distribution peaks.P = P1+…+Pn.  Therefore, US Infection cases is changed to multi-peak Lorentzian distribution fit and is still on the rise and not observed to peak yet. Projection by Health Data Organization Link à http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

State of California data 4/9/2020 Infected 19,971, Deaths 559 (2.8%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 20,000 by 4/8/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 19, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need additional data for few more days. 

Gaussian Distribution is still a better fit for CAThe fit is done to determine the Peak date after which should be flat.

 

San Diego County data à https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/community_epidemiology/dc/2019-nCoV/status.html

San Diego County data 4/8/2020 Infected 1,628, Deaths 40 (2.5%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 2,000 by 4/9/2020 but now appears to be leveling off.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

All of US:

 

CALIFORNIA ONLY:

 

For San Diego County only County does not update on Weekends


CoViD19 vs Flu both need masks

Nat Suwarnasarn
 

CoViD19 vs Influenza (A&B)

 

 

From: Nat Suwarnasarn [mailto:njsarn9@...]
Sent: Wednesday, April 08, 2020 9:56 AM
To:
Cc:
Subject: RE: Masks - Yes much needed

 

Masks, much needed.

There was a discussion on PAPA analog by an Insurance guy that the deaths due to CoViD19 is small (~13,087 so far) compared to the numbers of US deaths due to Flu could be as high as ~ 59,000 during 2019-2020 Flu season (actual Flu data not out yet)

Analyzing the (US) data:

·         Dividing CoViD19 deaths 13,087 by 3 months = ~ 4,000 per months.  (Total infected cases = 406,585)

o   Insurance guy didn’t notice the death rate per infected is 13,087*100 / 406,858 = 3.21%

·         Dividing Flu deaths 59,000 by 6 months = ~ 10,000 per months (Total infected cases  ~ 45,000,000)

o   Flu death rate = 59,000*100 / 45,000,000 = 0.13%

 

   So the virulent of CoViD19 to Flu is about 3.21 / 0.13 = 24.7 or 25 times more deadly.

    

Flu nfo from article > https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year 

Live CoViD19 data > https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

341 - 360 of 7886