Date   

Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/21/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io Calendar <main@...>
 

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net

When: Tuesday, 21 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8

View Event

Description: Net Control - KG6RGI
North Check-Ins - W6SJK
South Check-Ins - KJ6HOV

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).


FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/17/2020

Nat Suwarnasarn
 

FYI, sent to a group of Hams.

Maybe the reason some lesser populated states had surpassed California à https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5dbU3p78eAg

 

From: Nat Suwarnasarn []
Sent: Friday, April 17, 2020 6:16 PM
To: undisclosed
Subject: RE: US CoViD-19 Update 4/17/2020

 

Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT 4/17/2020 (Previous updated 4/9/2020)  Next expected projection report in 3-5 days.

·         California infection cases (1st derivative) jumping about appears to be leveling off.  Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Michigan all surpassed California in number of infected cases and death rate.

 

USA Latest data 4/17/2020 Infected 709,735 Deaths 37,153 (5.23%) rate notably increased and Recovered 60,510 (8.53%)

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/23/2020 (shifting to later date - good sign).and number of deaths Breaking 50,000 on April 24, 2020 (shifting closer – bad sign, death rate climbing!)

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicate some improvement but then jumps back up indicating Multi-peak situation  US Infection cases is indicate o multi-peak Lorentzian distribution fit and is still on the rise and not observed to peak yet. Projection by Health Data Organization Link à http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

State of California data 4/17/2020 Infected 29,175, Deaths 1041 (3.6%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 30,000 by 4/22/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 17, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need 3 more days of data.

 The fit is done to project when the Peak date should be after which should be flat.

 

San Diego County data à https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/community_epidemiology/dc/2019-nCoV/status.html

San Diego County data 4/15/2020 Infected 2.087, Deaths 63 (3.0%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 2,000 by 4/17/2020 but now appears to be leveling off.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

All of US:

 

CALIFORNIA ONLY:

 

For San Diego County only County does not update on Weekends


Re: Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/14/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

Fred Curtis, KI6GRO
 

Bob and Jer,

Can you give me an early check-in tonight for the nets?  Won't be able to make them this evening.

73!

Fred
KI6GRO


Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/14/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io Calendar <main@...>
 

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net

When: Tuesday, 14 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8

View Event

Description: Net Control - WA6DNT
North Check-Ins - AK6QJ
South Check-Ins - W6SJK

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).


Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/14/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io Calendar <main@...>
 

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net

When: Tuesday, 14 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8

View Event

Description: Net Control - WA6DNT
North Check-Ins - AK6QJ
South Check-Ins - W6SJK

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).


Re: FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/9/2020

Sarah Peterson
 

Nat, these graphs are very informative. Thank you for creating these and sending them out.

On Sat, Apr 11, 2020 at 12:08 AM Nat Suwarnasarn <njsarn9@...> wrote:

Updated the Plots yesterday (from live sources but data is captured everyday at 6:00 pm).  See multi peaking explained below (happens when we relax our restriction and let down our guards).

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

From: Nat Suwarnasarn []
Sent: Thursday, April 09, 2020 9:01 PM
To:
Subject: RE: US CoViD-19 Update 4/9/2020

 

Quick Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT 

N.B. Let me know if you want to be removed from the list, otherwise will report projections in 3-5 days interval.

·         California infection cases (1st derivative) appear to be jumping about but will have to see with if that trend holds.  Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Louisiana may surpass California in number of infected cases in 3-5 days.

·         Although CA is showing good signs of potential curve flattening, all need to be very vigilant and stay inside to prevent Multi-peaking (Multi-peaking – As one curve tries to flatten out, pauses for a few days then another new and underlying curve forces it to continue to rise and not flattening out.).  Curve fitting is done by minimizing Chi Squared on curve parameters when possible.

·         The number of Corona Virus Disease19 deaths is currently LESS than CDC’s (2018-19) projected seasonal Influenza deaths (up to 59,000) out of infected 45 million (worst) cases.  However, CoViD19 deaths on infected is 3.56% versus seasonal Flu is about 0.13% worst case deaths.  Thus the virulent of CoViD19 is about 27 times that of seasonal Flu. ALL WEAR MASK WHEN VENTURING OUTSIDE  Link à https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

 

USA Latest data 4/9/2020 Infected 468,566 Deaths 16,691 (3.56%) rate increased from previous and Recovered 25,928 (5.53%)

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/21/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 50,000 on April 26, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicate some improvement but then jumps back up indicating Multi-peak situation  It is obvious that the distribution is convoluted by the state by state individual distribution peaks.P = P1+…+Pn.  Therefore, US Infection cases is changed to multi-peak Lorentzian distribution fit and is still on the rise and not observed to peak yet. Projection by Health Data Organization Link à http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

State of California data 4/9/2020 Infected 19,971, Deaths 559 (2.8%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 20,000 by 4/8/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 19, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need additional data for few more days. 

Gaussian Distribution is still a better fit for CAThe fit is done to determine the Peak date after which should be flat.

 

San Diego County data à https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/community_epidemiology/dc/2019-nCoV/status.html

San Diego County data 4/8/2020 Infected 1,628, Deaths 40 (2.5%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 2,000 by 4/9/2020 but now appears to be leveling off.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

All of US:

 

CALIFORNIA ONLY:

 

For San Diego County only County does not update on Weekends


FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/9/2020

Nat Suwarnasarn
 

Updated the Plots yesterday (from live sources but data is captured everyday at 6:00 pm).  See multi peaking explained below (happens when we relax our restriction and let down our guards).

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

From: Nat Suwarnasarn []
Sent: Thursday, April 09, 2020 9:01 PM
To:
Subject: RE: US CoViD-19 Update 4/9/2020

 

Quick Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT 

N.B. Let me know if you want to be removed from the list, otherwise will report projections in 3-5 days interval.

·         California infection cases (1st derivative) appear to be jumping about but will have to see with if that trend holds.  Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Louisiana may surpass California in number of infected cases in 3-5 days.

·         Although CA is showing good signs of potential curve flattening, all need to be very vigilant and stay inside to prevent Multi-peaking (Multi-peaking – As one curve tries to flatten out, pauses for a few days then another new and underlying curve forces it to continue to rise and not flattening out.).  Curve fitting is done by minimizing Chi Squared on curve parameters when possible.

·         The number of Corona Virus Disease19 deaths is currently LESS than CDC’s (2018-19) projected seasonal Influenza deaths (up to 59,000) out of infected 45 million (worst) cases.  However, CoViD19 deaths on infected is 3.56% versus seasonal Flu is about 0.13% worst case deaths.  Thus the virulent of CoViD19 is about 27 times that of seasonal Flu. ALL WEAR MASK WHEN VENTURING OUTSIDE  Link à https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

 

USA Latest data 4/9/2020 Infected 468,566 Deaths 16,691 (3.56%) rate increased from previous and Recovered 25,928 (5.53%)

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/21/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 50,000 on April 26, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicate some improvement but then jumps back up indicating Multi-peak situation  It is obvious that the distribution is convoluted by the state by state individual distribution peaks.P = P1+…+Pn.  Therefore, US Infection cases is changed to multi-peak Lorentzian distribution fit and is still on the rise and not observed to peak yet. Projection by Health Data Organization Link à http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

 

State of California data 4/9/2020 Infected 19,971, Deaths 559 (2.8%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 20,000 by 4/8/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 19, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need additional data for few more days. 

Gaussian Distribution is still a better fit for CAThe fit is done to determine the Peak date after which should be flat.

 

San Diego County data à https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/community_epidemiology/dc/2019-nCoV/status.html

San Diego County data 4/8/2020 Infected 1,628, Deaths 40 (2.5%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 2,000 by 4/9/2020 but now appears to be leveling off.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

All of US:

 

CALIFORNIA ONLY:

 

For San Diego County only County does not update on Weekends


CoViD19 vs Flu both need masks

Nat Suwarnasarn
 

CoViD19 vs Influenza (A&B)

 

 

From: Nat Suwarnasarn [mailto:njsarn9@...]
Sent: Wednesday, April 08, 2020 9:56 AM
To:
Cc:
Subject: RE: Masks - Yes much needed

 

Masks, much needed.

There was a discussion on PAPA analog by an Insurance guy that the deaths due to CoViD19 is small (~13,087 so far) compared to the numbers of US deaths due to Flu could be as high as ~ 59,000 during 2019-2020 Flu season (actual Flu data not out yet)

Analyzing the (US) data:

·         Dividing CoViD19 deaths 13,087 by 3 months = ~ 4,000 per months.  (Total infected cases = 406,585)

o   Insurance guy didn’t notice the death rate per infected is 13,087*100 / 406,858 = 3.21%

·         Dividing Flu deaths 59,000 by 6 months = ~ 10,000 per months (Total infected cases  ~ 45,000,000)

o   Flu death rate = 59,000*100 / 45,000,000 = 0.13%

 

   So the virulent of CoViD19 to Flu is about 3.21 / 0.13 = 24.7 or 25 times more deadly.

    

Flu nfo from article > https://www.health.com/condition/cold-flu-sinus/how-many-people-die-of-the-flu-every-year 

Live CoViD19 data > https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV


Re: FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

Steve
 

Thanks but my intent was to GRAPH the per capita values, which no one has done that I can find...  Easier to comprehend than raw data... HI


On Tue, Apr 7, 2020 at 8:03 PM Nat Suwarnasarn <njsarn9@...> wrote:

Steve, Just use the link you sent earlier. It has projections and peak dates, much more meaningful than static data.

·         The one you sent earlier à http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

·         This one has deaths per 1 million population as well  à https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (click the column header to sort low to high or vise versa.

73’ Nat S.N6BRV

 

From: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io [mailto:main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io] On Behalf Of Steve
Sent: Tuesday, April 07, 2020 7:02 PM
To: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io
Subject: Re: [ARC2-SDICC] FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

 

To put things into perspective rather than look at total numbers published by the media:




Re: FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

Nat Suwarnasarn
 

Steve, Just use the link you sent earlier. It has projections and peak dates, much more meaningful than static data.

·         The one you sent earlier à http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

·         This one has deaths per 1 million population as well  à https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (click the column header to sort low to high or vise versa.

73’ Nat S.N6BRV

 

From: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io [mailto:main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io] On Behalf Of Steve
Sent: Tuesday, April 07, 2020 7:02 PM
To: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io
Subject: Re: [ARC2-SDICC] FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

 

To put things into perspective rather than look at total numbers published by the media:


Re: FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

Steve
 

To put things into perspective rather than look at total numbers published by the media:


Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/07/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io Calendar <main@...>
 

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net

When: Tuesday, 7 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8

View Event

Description: Net Control - AK6QJ
North Check-Ins - K6REW
South Check-Ins - KJ6MVB

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).


Upcoming Event: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net - Tue, 04/07/2020 8:00pm-8:30pm #cal-reminder

main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io Calendar <main@...>
 

Reminder: Red Cross Communications Team Weekly Net

When: Tuesday, 7 April 2020, 8:00pm to 8:30pm, (GMT-07:00) America/Los Angeles

Where:RACES/ACS Repeater; 147.195 MHz, "+" offset, PL 114.8

View Event

Description: Net Control - AK6QJ
North Check-Ins - K6REW
South Check-Ins - KJ6MVB

This is a voted repeater system. Please allow approximately 1 second between pushing the PTT button on you mic and talking to allow the system to work its magic. Repeater times out after 2 minutes. If this repeater is unavailable please migrate to the PARC 130 machine (147.130 MHz, "+" offset, PL 107.2).


New file uploaded to main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io

main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io Notification <main+notification@...>
 

Hello,

This email message is a notification to let you know that the following files have been uploaded to the Files area of the main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io group.

Uploaded By: Jer Kostro - Red Cross <jer.kostro.AK6QJ@...>

Description:
Revised Apr/May Roster & Net Assignments - NCS please use this one until further notice.

Cheers,
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Re: FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

Nat Suwarnasarn
 

Steve, thanks!  Good find.

 

Finally some responsible people are tasked to do the work that needed to be done.

I believe I can lay off now, the results I got from crude approximation is very close to what these guys are projecting to within days of each other.

.

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

From: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io [mailto:main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io] On Behalf Of Steve
Sent: Sunday, April 05, 2020 9:48 PM
To: main@arc2-sdicc.groups.io
Subject: Re: [ARC2-SDICC] FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

 

Nat, for comparison, by State...

 

 

Steve W6SJK

 

On Sun, Apr 5, 2020 at 8:45 PM Nat Suwarnasarn <njsarn9@...> wrote:

Please see below.

 

From: Nat Suwarnasarn [mailto:njsarn9@...]
Sent: Sunday, April 05, 2020 8:42 PM
To:
Subject: RE: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

 

Quick Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT  ALL WEAR MASK WHEN VENTURING OUTSIDE

Good news, California infection cases (1st derivative) appear to be flattening out but will have to see with 2-3 more days of data if that trend holds.

 

USA Latest data 4/5/2020 Infected 336673 Deaths 9616 (2.9%) and Recovered 17,977 (5.34%) Surpassed death rate

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/20/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 10,000 on April 6, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indication some improvement.  US Infection cases fit (good old) Gaussian distribution better still on the rise.and not at the peak yet.  It is obvious that the distribution is convoluted by the state by state individual distribution peaks.P = P1+…+Pn

 

State of California data 4/5/2020 Infected 15,037, Deaths 347 (2.3%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 20,000 by 4/8/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 19, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need additional data from following 3-5 days. 

Gaussian Distribution is a better fit.  Is CA at the peak?  Will see next coming week’s data.

 

San Diego County data lags 2 days behind.  Dat from SD county not updated on weekends

San Diego County data 4/3/2020 Infected 1,209, Deaths 18 (1.5%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 2,000 by 4/9/2020. 

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

All of US:

 

CALIFORNIA ONLY:

 

For San Diego County only County does not update on Weekends


 

--


Re: FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

Steve
 

Nat, for comparison, by State...


Steve W6SJK

On Sun, Apr 5, 2020 at 8:45 PM Nat Suwarnasarn <njsarn9@...> wrote:

Please see below.

 

From: Nat Suwarnasarn [mailto:njsarn9@...]
Sent: Sunday, April 05, 2020 8:42 PM
To:
Subject: RE: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

 

Quick Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT  ALL WEAR MASK WHEN VENTURING OUTSIDE

Good news, California infection cases (1st derivative) appear to be flattening out but will have to see with 2-3 more days of data if that trend holds.

 

USA Latest data 4/5/2020 Infected 336673 Deaths 9616 (2.9%) and Recovered 17,977 (5.34%) Surpassed death rate

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/20/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 10,000 on April 6, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indication some improvement.  US Infection cases fit (good old) Gaussian distribution better still on the rise.and not at the peak yet.  It is obvious that the distribution is convoluted by the state by state individual distribution peaks.P = P1+…+Pn

 

State of California data 4/5/2020 Infected 15,037, Deaths 347 (2.3%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 20,000 by 4/8/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 19, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need additional data from following 3-5 days. 

Gaussian Distribution is a better fit.  Is CA at the peak?  Will see next coming week’s data.

 

San Diego County data lags 2 days behind.  Dat from SD county not updated on weekends

San Diego County data 4/3/2020 Infected 1,209, Deaths 18 (1.5%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 2,000 by 4/9/2020. 

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

All of US:

 

CALIFORNIA ONLY:

 

For San Diego County only County does not update on Weekends




Re: FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

Eric Richardson
 

Thank you, Nat. Excellent work. Eric KM6MPE 


On Sun, Apr 5, 2020, 8:45 PM Nat Suwarnasarn <njsarn9@...> wrote:

Please see below.

 

From: Nat Suwarnasarn [mailto:njsarn9@...]
Sent: Sunday, April 05, 2020 8:42 PM
To:
Subject: RE: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

 

Quick Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT  ALL WEAR MASK WHEN VENTURING OUTSIDE

Good news, California infection cases (1st derivative) appear to be flattening out but will have to see with 2-3 more days of data if that trend holds.

 

USA Latest data 4/5/2020 Infected 336673 Deaths 9616 (2.9%) and Recovered 17,977 (5.34%) Surpassed death rate

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/20/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 10,000 on April 6, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indication some improvement.  US Infection cases fit (good old) Gaussian distribution better still on the rise.and not at the peak yet.  It is obvious that the distribution is convoluted by the state by state individual distribution peaks.P = P1+…+Pn

 

State of California data 4/5/2020 Infected 15,037, Deaths 347 (2.3%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 20,000 by 4/8/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 19, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need additional data from following 3-5 days. 

Gaussian Distribution is a better fit.  Is CA at the peak?  Will see next coming week’s data.

 

San Diego County data lags 2 days behind.  Dat from SD county not updated on weekends

San Diego County data 4/3/2020 Infected 1,209, Deaths 18 (1.5%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 2,000 by 4/9/2020. 

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

All of US:

 

CALIFORNIA ONLY:

 

For San Diego County only County does not update on Weekends


FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

Nat Suwarnasarn
 

Please see below.

 

From: Nat Suwarnasarn [mailto:njsarn9@...]
Sent: Sunday, April 05, 2020 8:42 PM
To:
Subject: RE: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

 

Quick Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT  ALL WEAR MASK WHEN VENTURING OUTSIDE

Good news, California infection cases (1st derivative) appear to be flattening out but will have to see with 2-3 more days of data if that trend holds.

 

USA Latest data 4/5/2020 Infected 336673 Deaths 9616 (2.9%) and Recovered 17,977 (5.34%) Surpassed death rate

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/20/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 10,000 on April 6, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indication some improvement.  US Infection cases fit (good old) Gaussian distribution better still on the rise.and not at the peak yet.  It is obvious that the distribution is convoluted by the state by state individual distribution peaks.P = P1+…+Pn

 

State of California data 4/5/2020 Infected 15,037, Deaths 347 (2.3%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 20,000 by 4/8/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 19, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need additional data from following 3-5 days. 

Gaussian Distribution is a better fit.  Is CA at the peak?  Will see next coming week’s data.

 

San Diego County data lags 2 days behind.  Dat from SD county not updated on weekends

San Diego County data 4/3/2020 Infected 1,209, Deaths 18 (1.5%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 2,000 by 4/9/2020. 

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

All of US:

 

CALIFORNIA ONLY:

 

For San Diego County only County does not update on Weekends


Re: COVID-19 Myths

Bob Birch
 

Jim,

Comments are only going to our local DST group and select partners that have signed up for our groups.io. 

Bob

-------- Original message --------
From: jim brauer <jimsbft@...>
Date: 4/5/20 9:04 AM (GMT-08:00)
To: main@arc2-sdicc.groups.io
Subject: Re: [ARC2-SDICC] COVID-19 Myths

Your comms are going to all ARC DST

On Sat, Apr 4, 2020, 4:32 PM Steve <stevew6sjk@...> wrote:

On Sat, Apr 4, 2020 at 3:10 PM Gary Kent <gary.kent@...> wrote:

Don’t suppose you would care to elaborate on what the errors all for the benefit of the rest of us?

 

Gary Kent

 

From: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io [mailto:main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io] On Behalf Of Steve
Sent: Saturday, April 4, 2020 12:42 PM
To: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io
Subject: Re: [ARC2-SDICC] COVID-19 Myths

 

Well shoot... I checked multiple sources - than found out that this was not produced by J Hopkins and contains errors... Sorry.



--


Re: COVID-19 Myths

Gary Kent
 

 

Thanks Steve

 

Gary

 

From: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io [mailto:main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io] On Behalf Of Steve
Sent: Saturday, April 4, 2020 4:32 PM
To: main@arc2-sdicc.groups.io
Subject: Re: [ARC2-SDICC] COVID-19 Myths

 

 

On Sat, Apr 4, 2020 at 3:10 PM Gary Kent <gary.kent@...> wrote:

Don’t suppose you would care to elaborate on what the errors all for the benefit of the rest of us?

 

Gary Kent

 

From: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io [mailto:main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io] On Behalf Of Steve
Sent: Saturday, April 4, 2020 12:42 PM
To: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io
Subject: Re: [ARC2-SDICC] COVID-19 Myths

 

Well shoot... I checked multiple sources - than found out that this was not produced by J Hopkins and contains errors... Sorry.


 

--