Topics

FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020


Nat Suwarnasarn
 

Please see below.

 

From: Nat Suwarnasarn [mailto:njsarn9@...]
Sent: Sunday, April 05, 2020 8:42 PM
To:
Subject: RE: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

 

Quick Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT  ALL WEAR MASK WHEN VENTURING OUTSIDE

Good news, California infection cases (1st derivative) appear to be flattening out but will have to see with 2-3 more days of data if that trend holds.

 

USA Latest data 4/5/2020 Infected 336673 Deaths 9616 (2.9%) and Recovered 17,977 (5.34%) Surpassed death rate

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/20/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 10,000 on April 6, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indication some improvement.  US Infection cases fit (good old) Gaussian distribution better still on the rise.and not at the peak yet.  It is obvious that the distribution is convoluted by the state by state individual distribution peaks.P = P1+…+Pn

 

State of California data 4/5/2020 Infected 15,037, Deaths 347 (2.3%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 20,000 by 4/8/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 19, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need additional data from following 3-5 days. 

Gaussian Distribution is a better fit.  Is CA at the peak?  Will see next coming week’s data.

 

San Diego County data lags 2 days behind.  Dat from SD county not updated on weekends

San Diego County data 4/3/2020 Infected 1,209, Deaths 18 (1.5%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 2,000 by 4/9/2020. 

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

All of US:

 

CALIFORNIA ONLY:

 

For San Diego County only County does not update on Weekends


Eric Richardson
 

Thank you, Nat. Excellent work. Eric KM6MPE 


On Sun, Apr 5, 2020, 8:45 PM Nat Suwarnasarn <njsarn9@...> wrote:

Please see below.

 

From: Nat Suwarnasarn [mailto:njsarn9@...]
Sent: Sunday, April 05, 2020 8:42 PM
To:
Subject: RE: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

 

Quick Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT  ALL WEAR MASK WHEN VENTURING OUTSIDE

Good news, California infection cases (1st derivative) appear to be flattening out but will have to see with 2-3 more days of data if that trend holds.

 

USA Latest data 4/5/2020 Infected 336673 Deaths 9616 (2.9%) and Recovered 17,977 (5.34%) Surpassed death rate

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/20/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 10,000 on April 6, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indication some improvement.  US Infection cases fit (good old) Gaussian distribution better still on the rise.and not at the peak yet.  It is obvious that the distribution is convoluted by the state by state individual distribution peaks.P = P1+…+Pn

 

State of California data 4/5/2020 Infected 15,037, Deaths 347 (2.3%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 20,000 by 4/8/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 19, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need additional data from following 3-5 days. 

Gaussian Distribution is a better fit.  Is CA at the peak?  Will see next coming week’s data.

 

San Diego County data lags 2 days behind.  Dat from SD county not updated on weekends

San Diego County data 4/3/2020 Infected 1,209, Deaths 18 (1.5%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 2,000 by 4/9/2020. 

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

All of US:

 

CALIFORNIA ONLY:

 

For San Diego County only County does not update on Weekends


Steve
 

Nat, for comparison, by State...


Steve W6SJK

On Sun, Apr 5, 2020 at 8:45 PM Nat Suwarnasarn <njsarn9@...> wrote:

Please see below.

 

From: Nat Suwarnasarn [mailto:njsarn9@...]
Sent: Sunday, April 05, 2020 8:42 PM
To:
Subject: RE: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

 

Quick Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT  ALL WEAR MASK WHEN VENTURING OUTSIDE

Good news, California infection cases (1st derivative) appear to be flattening out but will have to see with 2-3 more days of data if that trend holds.

 

USA Latest data 4/5/2020 Infected 336673 Deaths 9616 (2.9%) and Recovered 17,977 (5.34%) Surpassed death rate

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/20/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 10,000 on April 6, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indication some improvement.  US Infection cases fit (good old) Gaussian distribution better still on the rise.and not at the peak yet.  It is obvious that the distribution is convoluted by the state by state individual distribution peaks.P = P1+…+Pn

 

State of California data 4/5/2020 Infected 15,037, Deaths 347 (2.3%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 20,000 by 4/8/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 19, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need additional data from following 3-5 days. 

Gaussian Distribution is a better fit.  Is CA at the peak?  Will see next coming week’s data.

 

San Diego County data lags 2 days behind.  Dat from SD county not updated on weekends

San Diego County data 4/3/2020 Infected 1,209, Deaths 18 (1.5%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 2,000 by 4/9/2020. 

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

All of US:

 

CALIFORNIA ONLY:

 

For San Diego County only County does not update on Weekends




Nat Suwarnasarn
 

Steve, thanks!  Good find.

 

Finally some responsible people are tasked to do the work that needed to be done.

I believe I can lay off now, the results I got from crude approximation is very close to what these guys are projecting to within days of each other.

.

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

From: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io [mailto:main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io] On Behalf Of Steve
Sent: Sunday, April 05, 2020 9:48 PM
To: main@arc2-sdicc.groups.io
Subject: Re: [ARC2-SDICC] FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

 

Nat, for comparison, by State...

 

 

Steve W6SJK

 

On Sun, Apr 5, 2020 at 8:45 PM Nat Suwarnasarn <njsarn9@...> wrote:

Please see below.

 

From: Nat Suwarnasarn [mailto:njsarn9@...]
Sent: Sunday, April 05, 2020 8:42 PM
To:
Subject: RE: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

 

Quick Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT  ALL WEAR MASK WHEN VENTURING OUTSIDE

Good news, California infection cases (1st derivative) appear to be flattening out but will have to see with 2-3 more days of data if that trend holds.

 

USA Latest data 4/5/2020 Infected 336673 Deaths 9616 (2.9%) and Recovered 17,977 (5.34%) Surpassed death rate

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/20/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 10,000 on April 6, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indication some improvement.  US Infection cases fit (good old) Gaussian distribution better still on the rise.and not at the peak yet.  It is obvious that the distribution is convoluted by the state by state individual distribution peaks.P = P1+…+Pn

 

State of California data 4/5/2020 Infected 15,037, Deaths 347 (2.3%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 20,000 by 4/8/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 19, 2020.

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need additional data from following 3-5 days. 

Gaussian Distribution is a better fit.  Is CA at the peak?  Will see next coming week’s data.

 

San Diego County data lags 2 days behind.  Dat from SD county not updated on weekends

San Diego County data 4/3/2020 Infected 1,209, Deaths 18 (1.5%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 2,000 by 4/9/2020. 

1st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.

 

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

 

All of US:

 

CALIFORNIA ONLY:

 

For San Diego County only County does not update on Weekends


 

--


Steve
 

To put things into perspective rather than look at total numbers published by the media:


Nat Suwarnasarn
 

Steve, Just use the link you sent earlier. It has projections and peak dates, much more meaningful than static data.

·         The one you sent earlier à http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

·         This one has deaths per 1 million population as well  à https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (click the column header to sort low to high or vise versa.

73’ Nat S.N6BRV

 

From: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io [mailto:main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io] On Behalf Of Steve
Sent: Tuesday, April 07, 2020 7:02 PM
To: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io
Subject: Re: [ARC2-SDICC] FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

 

To put things into perspective rather than look at total numbers published by the media:


Steve
 

Thanks but my intent was to GRAPH the per capita values, which no one has done that I can find...  Easier to comprehend than raw data... HI


On Tue, Apr 7, 2020 at 8:03 PM Nat Suwarnasarn <njsarn9@...> wrote:

Steve, Just use the link you sent earlier. It has projections and peak dates, much more meaningful than static data.

·         The one you sent earlier à http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

·         This one has deaths per 1 million population as well  à https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ (click the column header to sort low to high or vise versa.

73’ Nat S.N6BRV

 

From: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io [mailto:main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io] On Behalf Of Steve
Sent: Tuesday, April 07, 2020 7:02 PM
To: main@ARC2-SDICC.groups.io
Subject: Re: [ARC2-SDICC] FW: US CoViD-19 Update 4/5/2020

 

To put things into perspective rather than look at total numbers published by the media: