Summary: Data as of 18:00 hrs. PDT 4/17/2020 (Previous updated 4/9/2020)  Next expected projection report in 3-5 days.

·         California infection cases (1^st derivative) jumping about appears to be leveling off.  Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Michigan all surpassed California in number of infected cases and death rate.

USA Latest data 4/17/2020 Infected 709,735 Deaths 37,153 (5.23%) rate notably increased and Recovered 60,510 (8.53%)

Projection indicate infected cases reach 1 million by 4/23/2020 (shifting to later date - good sign).and number of deaths Breaking 50,000 on April 24, 2020 (shifting closer – bad sign, death rate climbing!)

1^st derivative of Infected graph – Indicate some improvement but then jumps back up indicating Multi-peak situation  US Infection cases is indicate o multi-peak Lorentzian distribution fit and is still on the rise and not observed to peak yet. Projection by Health Data Organization Link à http://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

State of California data 4/17/2020 Infected 29,175, Deaths 1041 (3.6%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate California infected cases reach 30,000 by 4/22/2020.and number of deaths Breaking 1,000 on April 17, 2020.

1^st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating some leveling off need 3 more days of data.

 The fit is done to project when the Peak date should be after which should be flat.

San Diego County data à https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/content/sdc/hhsa/programs/phs/community_epidemiology/dc/2019-nCoV/status.html

San Diego County data 4/15/2020 Infected 2.087, Deaths 63 (3.0%) and Recovered TBD

Projection indicate infected cases reach 2,000 by 4/17/2020 but now appears to be leveling off.

1^st derivative of Infected graph – Indicating potential leveling off in infection rate.

73’ Nat S. N6BRV

All of US:

CALIFORNIA ONLY:

For San Diego County only County does not update on Weekends